[17].Notethattherehadbeennotrendtowardincreasingcropareaformarginalcropsingeneralbefore1949.SeeDAF,Yearbook1950,sec.3.4.B.Thecrucialevidencehere,however,isthatthecropareaformarginalcropshadincreasedrelativelymorethanthatforintramarginalcropsunderthesharerestriction.Thethree-yearannualaverages(1949-51)ofthecropareaformarginalcropsusedhereafterarelessdramaticthantwo-yearannualaverages(1950-51),sincethesharerestrictionbeganinmid-1949.Seetable3forannualchanges.
[18].A"t"testwasrunontheobservationsofhectareyieldsbeforeandafterthesharerestrictionforallmarginalcropsintables6and7.Thestatisticsputedwerethestandardizedmeandifferenceofthetwenty-onepairedobservations.Thenullhypothesis,thattherewasnosystematicandsignificantdifferencebetweenthebeforeandafterhectareyields,wasrejectedatthea=.01levelofsignificance.Thehectareyieldsforthemarginalcropsunderthesharerestrictionweresignificantlylower,asisimpliedbythehypothesisofincreasedfarmingintensity.
[19].Notethatforitems16to20(table7),thedecreasesincropareawereassociatedwithdecreasesincrophectareyield.Thisisnotdifficulttounderstand.Theexhaustionofbetterlandandtimeandthehighercostofplantinggeneratedbyafasterrotationratebinedtoinflict"harmful"spilloversoncropsofthesameseasonalmargin.
[20].Informationonthegrowingtimerequiredformostvegetablesisusuallyinambiguoustermssuchas"twotothreemonths."Thatiswhywecitehereonlytheextremecasesforwhichthedemarcationofgrowingtimeisclear.
[21].SeeS.C.HsiehandT.H.Lee,"TheEffectsofPopulationPressureandSeasonalLaborSurplusonthePatternandIntensityofAgricultureinTaiwan,"(mimeographed,1964),p.5.Apletelistoflaborrequirementsforeachvegetableisnotavailable.
D.CropsUnaffectedbytheShareRestriction:Horticulture
ThemethodIhaveemployedtocopewiththelackofseparateoutputdatafortenantandownerfarmsistoranktheprefecturesaccordingtothemagnitudesoflandresourcesaffectedbythecontrol.Theconclusionsstemmingfromthismethodmaybeconfirmedfurtherbyinvestigatingaclassofcropsnotincludedunderthesharerestriction.Wefindthisinhorticulturalcrops:
Horticulturalcropsgrowondryland,buttheydiffersignificantlyfromothercropsgrownondryland.Theytakeseveralyearsofcultivationbeforethefruitscanbeharvested…,thatiswhytherulesofrentalsharerestrictioncouldnotapplytothem.…Ourdecisionfortenancyinhorticulturalcropswastoleavethecontractsastheyhadbeen.…[1]
Asshownintable3,theharvestedareaforhorticulturalcropsdeclined.Intable8,welistallthehorticulturalcropsonrecord.Ofthetwenty-threecropslisted,theplantyieldforallbutfourcropsdecreased.[2]Bothobservationsmaybeinterpretedasfollows:Underthesharerestrictionimposedonothercropsandthecorrespondingreallocationofresources,farminginputsmittedtohorticulturedeclined.Someplantswhichhadpreviouslybeenharvestedatthemarginwerenownotharvestedatall,whichledtothedecreaseintheareaharvested.Bythesamereasoning,thelowerinputsmittedtotree-climbingandannualupkeepoftheplantsledtothedecreaseinplantyieldfortheplantsactuallyharvested.
Forthemarginalcropsdiscussedinthelastsection,theincreaseincropareaassociatedwithasmallerproportionatedecreaseincrophectareyieldimpliesariseinthemarginalproductoflandandadecreaseinthemarginalproductoftenantinput.Inhorticulture,however,thedecreaseinthelandareaharvestedimpliesthatthemarginalproductoflanddecreased(i.e.,shifteddownward).This,togetherwiththedecreaseinplantyield,impliesthatnonlandresourceinputsdeclined,confirmingrisesinthemarginalproductsoftheseinputs.Thus,theobservationsareconsistentwiththeimplicationthatthemarginalproductoflandinhorticulturewaslowerthanthatofothercropsunderthesharerestriction,andthatthemarginalproductsoffarmingresourcesotherthanlandwerelowerintheseothercropsthaninhorticulture.
[1].Chen,RecordsofTaiwanLandReform,p.37.PerhapsthefactthattenancyseldomexistsinhorticulturewasthemainreasonChenmadethisdecision.Isimplyfailtoseewhytherulescouldnotapply.
[2].Apparently,thenumberofplantsperhectareisnotfixed,butwelackinformationontheyieldperhectare.A"t"testwasrunontheobservationsofplantyieldsbeforeandafterthesharerestriction,byusingthestandardizedmeandifferenceofthetwenty-threepairedobservationsintable8.Thenullhypothesis,thattherewasnosystematicandsignificantdifferencebetweenthebeforeandafterplantyields,wasrejectedatthea=.01levelofsignificance.Theplantyieldsforhorticultureunderthesharerestrictionweresignificantlylower.
E.Conclusions
ObservableevidenceobtainedfromthefirstphaseofTaiwanlandreformfailstofalsifytheimplicationsofthehypothesisofincreasedfarmingintensity.Theseimplications,derivedfromthetheoryofsharetenancywiththeaddedshareconstraint,areinconsistentwithefficientallocationofresources.Myfindingsconfirmthatundertherentalsharereductionthemarginalproductoflandintenantfarmswashigher,andthemarginalproductsoftenantinputswerelower,thanthoseofsimilarresourcesemployedelsewhere.orgbiningthefindingsofchapters7and8,letmesummarize: